Stimson Center - U.S. presidential elections were closely watched throughout the world, including in Yemen, a nation ravaged by a decade of conflict.
Yemen, the poorest country in the Arab world, is home to one of the Middle East’s most significant non-state actors: the Iran-backed Houthi group, controlling nearly half of Yemen’s population. Over the past year, the Houthis have increasingly disrupted vital global maritime routes, exacerbating tensions in the region.
In a show of solidarity with the Palestinian people, the group has pledged to retaliate against Israel until it ceases its military operations in Gaza, targeting and hijacking vessels the Houthis claim are linked to Israel. This aggressive stance has prompted the United States and the United Kingdom to conduct airstrikes on Houthi military positions inside Yemen. The U.S. has also taken the lead in an international military operation known as Operation Prosperity Guardian, shooting down drones that target ships as well as launching airstrikes to counter Houthi military capabilities. Meanwhile, the Houthis have also launched limited missile strikes on Israeli cities, prompting Israel to retaliate with multiple attacks on Yemen. In this complex theater of geopolitics, U.S. foreign policy decisions will be crucial in shaping Yemen’s future.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the unsuccessful Democratic presidential nominee, had maintained President Joe Biden’s approach to Yemen, which tended to overlook the connection between the Houthis’ attacks and the ongoing war in Gaza. In the past, Harris had aligned with more progressive members of her party by co-sponsoring legislation to end U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s military operations in Yemen. However, that was before the Houthi threat to international shipping escalated in the Red Sea.
For his part, Trump backed the Saudi-led war on Yemen during his administration and vetoed a bipartisan effort to pull U.S. support for Riyadh. As he was leaving office in January 2021, he went further, designating the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization. This move was meant to further isolate the Houthis and cut off international humanitarian relief for Yemenis under Houthis control. Under pressure from humanitarian organizations, which warned that it could make the dire situation in Yemen even worse, the designation was lifted by the Biden administration. At the same time, Trump criticized his successor for launching military strikes against the Houthis, claiming that Biden was “dropping bombs all over the Middle East.” This is not to say that Trump would not continue these actions should he return to office or put Houthis back on the terrorism list.
In 2022, with strong backing from the Biden administration, a UN-brokered truce managed to pause the long-running conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, offering some hope for a peaceful settlement. Though that truce technically expired after being renewed twice, both sides have largely stuck to it, holding off on major offensives and opening the door for a series of quiet talks. The two sides are still struggling to reach agreements over border security and economic matters, among other issues. Following the outbreak of the Gaza war last year, peace efforts have halted due to the escalating Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Reports in May indicated that the U.S. has given Saudi Arabia an informal go-ahead to revive peace efforts with the Houthis. But the Biden administration’s efforts to support peace while degrading Houthi military capabilities and reducing attacks on Red Sea shipping made it difficult to achieve diplomatic progress.
The second Trump administration will play a critical role in determining the future of Yemen. Decisions made in the coming months will not only impact Yemen’s trajectory but also resonate throughout the broader Middle East.
Yemen plays a significant role due to its strategic location along the Red Sea, a crucial global trade route. Its proximity to U.S. interests raises concerns when the Houthis threaten American assets, including military bases in Djibouti and Eritrea. Recent Houthi attacks have put global supply chains and regional stability at risk. Supported by Iran, the Houthis challenge Yemen’s government and neighboring countries, particularly U.S.-allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula group (AQAP) in Yemen poses a direct threat by planning attacks on military and diplomatic targets, recruiting extremists, and spreading anti-U.S. propaganda that can inspire global terrorism.
U.S. policy on Yemen has been largely reactive. A bolder, more visionary strategy must lean into the art of diplomacy, grappling with the root causes of Yemen’s relentless turmoil as well as regional rivalries and proxy wars.
The next U.S. administration should adopt a multifaceted approach focused on two key areas: First, it is crucial to acknowledge the link between Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the conflict in Gaza. This recognition should prompt a shift toward facilitating a comprehensive resolution that begins with a ceasefire in Gaza.
Second, the administration must support the establishment of a politically and militarily unified Yemeni government to strengthen the Yemeni state, enabling it to effectively address various threats, including Houthi influence, both domestically and regionally. In tandem, the administration should prioritize and facilitate an inclusive peace process that engages all relevant stakeholders.
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This article was first written for and published on the website of Stimson Center.
