Thursday, October 3, 2024

A Decade On, Assessing Shared Responsibility for Yemen’s Tragedy



The Arab Center Washington DC -  On September 21, 2014, Yemen’s capital Sanaa awoke to an unexpected turn of events that would reshape the country’s destiny. The Houthi armed group, officially known as Ansar Allah, had seized the city after a prepared march. The takeover had unfolded against the backdrop of popular grievances over the failure of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi’s transitional government to address economic hardship, corruption, and a pervasive sense of marginalization. Seeking to exploit this widespread discontent, the Houthis had forged a strategic alliance with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a move that merged their interests with his deep-rooted political influence. Government buildings fell swiftly after the Houthis entered Sanaa as they occupied the parliament, ministries, and military installations, one after another. Media outlets broadcast new messages under Houthi control, signaling a dramatic shift in power.

The rapid takeover sent shockwaves throughout the region. Saudi Arabia watched with mounting concern, seeing the Houthis’ ascendancy as an extension of Iranian influence and a growing threat on its southern border. In March 2015, determined to stop the group, the kingdom—leading a coalition of regional allies backed by the United States and the United Kingdom—launched Operation Decisive Storm. Years of intense conflict ensued, as air raids and ground battles became a grim reality for Yemenis. Despite the coalition’s relentless military campaign, the Houthis gained and held control over significant territory, showcasing resilience and tactical acumen. Currently some 70-80 percent of the population lives under Houthi control.

Today, Yemen finds itself deeply fragmented, embroiled in a protracted conflict marked by fragile truces, escalating tensions, and a worsening humanitarian crisis. What began as an internal power struggle has evolved into a complex web of regional rivalries and proxy wars. Saudi Arabia backed Hadi’s internationally recognized government, while United Arab Emirates (UAE), nominally part of the Saudi-led coalition, began to pursue its own strategic interests by supporting southern secessionists and controlling critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, whispers of Iran’s hand in the conflict grew louder. Tehran’s support of the Houthis—through arms, training, and political backing—served its objective of expanding its regional influence and challenging Saudi dominance. The intricate dance of these competing powers has worsened the conflict and deepened internal divisions, turning Yemen into a battleground for broader geopolitical contests.

With no clear resolution in sight, the prospect of a unified Yemen remains dim. As internal fragmentation and contesting regional ambitions continue, the dream of lasting peace also has slipped further out of reach. The decade-long conflict is a shared tragedy in which all parties—domestic factions and regional powers alike—have prioritized political dominance over peace, perpetuating unending violence that has caused immense humanitarian suffering.

Houthi Strategy and Consequences


Long before the world took notice in 2014, the Houthi group was already deeply entrenched in a cycle of conflict. Between 2004 and 2010, the Houthis engaged in six fierce wars against the Sanaa government in a series of confrontations collectively known as the Saadah Wars. These were not mere skirmishes, but protracted conflicts fueled by a complex web of political disenfranchisement, economic neglect, and religious grievances. These years of relentless warfare honed the Houthis’ military strategies and solidified their organizational structure.

Since 2014, the Houthis have systematically consolidated power through strategic governance and military tactics. The group adopted a more calculated approach of entrenching themselves in state institutions instead of dismantling them. They also established a governance system in which real authority is held by a network of loyalist supervisors behind a façade of technocratic officials. Through this approach, the Houthis were able to centralize control, marginalize traditional actors like tribal leaders, and tighten their grip on power. The group’s alliance with former President Saleh and elements of Yemen’s weakened state apparatus facilitated this consolidation.

The Houthis faced the daunting task, however, of financing a prolonged military campaign. To cover the costs of war and those of governing, they imposed new taxes and levies across the territories under their control, burdening businesses and citizens. Militarily, they capitalized on the power vacuum, gaining territory in northern Yemen while facing resistance in areas like the oil-rich region of Marib. As part of their advance, the Houthis took over the national army’s arsenal, significantly strengthening their military capabilities. But amidst their military advances, a darker aspect of the Houthis’ strategy emerged. The group, like other actors in the Yemeni conflict, has recruited boys as young as twelve and thrust them into the front lines.

The Houthis also have made major changes to the education system. They reformed the school curricula by incorporating their religious and political ideologies into lessons on history, literature, and social studies, influencing the younger generation.

The group is motivated by a profound desire to protect and promote Zaydi Shia traditions, which they believe Yemen’s previous rulers have marginalized. For the Houthis, these traditions represent their religious and political heritage, which they claim has eroded since the fall of the Zaydi Imamate in 1962. In response to Wahhabi influence backed by Saudi Arabia, they view their movement as a defense of their identity, using Zaydi practices to assert leadership and to legitimize their resistance to marginalization. Their refusal to compromise on core ideological principles, especially on the absolute authority of their leader, Abdelmalek al-Houthi, has been a barrier to wider acceptance among the population. This uncompromising stance made it difficult to build bridges with other factions and hindered efforts toward sustainable governance.

A major trigger for the Houthis’ decision to seize the capital a decade ago was their opposition to a 2013 decentralization proposal being discussed by the Gulf Cooperation Council-backed National Dialogue Conference, a reform roadmap developed in the wake of Yemen’s 2011 popular uprising that ousted President Saleh. The Houthis perceived the adoption of a federal system as a direct threat by limiting their influence and access to vital resources. Determined to avoid being sidelined, the Houthis embarked on their campaign to expand their territorial control to Sanaa and beyond, disrupting what was supposed to be a transition from Saleh’s regime to a more inclusive government.

Government Coalition Dynamics


After Sanaa fell and President Hadi and his cabinet fled to Saudi Arabia, the exiled Yemeni government struggled to assert authority from abroad. Stripped of their stronghold in the capital, officials had to operate from the southern city of Aden as well as Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The distance from Sanaa, where centralized authority had resided, further weakened Hadi’s ability to govern effectively and to provide essential services to a nation already teetering on the brink of collapse.

Internal divisions surfaced as government factions clashed over strategies, and rampant corruption eroded public trust. Meanwhile, the reconstituted national army, which was supposed to be a unified front against the Houthi insurgency, splintered into factions with divided loyalties. This fragmentation left the Yemeni government vulnerable to the relentless advances of the Houthis and other rival factions vying for power.

When the Saudi-led coalition intervened in the conflict, its mission was to strengthen the Yemeni government with military, financial, and logistical support. Yemeni officials initially welcomed the coalition hoping it would restore stability and repel the advancing Houthis. But the situation quickly deteriorated as extensive coalition airstrikes targeted Houthi-held areas, causing significant civilian casualties and severe infrastructure damage. As communities suffered, resentment grew, and the promise of peace faded. Ironically, the coalition’s actions inadvertently strengthened the Houthis by diminishing trust in their adversaries. In April 2022, the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) was announced from Riyadh, with the backing of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, established to unify anti-Houthi factions. However, internal coalition divisions seeped into the council itself, causing friction among its members, each influenced by their backers’ agendas, and fracturing the anti-Houthi front.

The Role of Regional Actors


The involvement of regional powers—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran—deepened Yemen’s conflict. Determined to limit the Houthi-Iran threat, Saudi Arabia launched a campaign with hopes of a swift military victory. The conflict, however, dragged on far longer than Riyadh anticipated, eventually forcing Saudi Arabia to recalibrate its strategy. No longer solely focused on defeating the Houthis on the battlefield, Riyadh began to negotiate for a truce with them and to forge new alliances with other factions, help form new specialized forces, and back select PLC members to counterbalance the UAE’s growing influence.

The UAE, initially a key coalition player, pivoted to prioritize strategic interests in southern Yemen, a region rich in resources and dotted with strategic ports. Recognizing the economic and geopolitical value of these areas, the UAE extended its support to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a group fervently seeking the secession of southern Yemen due to historical grievances and a desire to restore the independence of South Yemen, which existed before the unification in 1990. The STC, empowered by the UAE, swiftly gained control over significant territory and revenue sources, including key ports, such as in Aden and Mayoun, that served as lifelines for international trade and maritime routes. The STC’s rise was meteoric and it established a stronghold that directly challenged the PLC’s authority. The UAE also backed select PLC members.

Thus, supposed coalition partners Saudi Arabia and the UAE backed different factions within Yemen, each pursuing their own interests with little regard for the unified front they once presented. As they created a fragmented military landscape, clashes between their proxy forces became common. Since 2017, UAE-backed forces have been controlling key military positions on Yemen’s Socotra Island in the Arabian Sea, adjacent to Saudi-supported forces. STC-affiliated forces seized the presidential palace in Aden in 2019 and 2023. In 2021, divergent UAE-Saudi approaches contributed to tribal clashes and deepening security troubles in Shabwa governorate.

For their part, the Houthis found a close ally in Iran, which starting in 2014 boosted its military support to the group. Iran provided advanced weaponry, training, and strategic guidance, significantly enhancing the Houthis’ capabilities and resilience. Iran’s backing transformed the Houthis from a regional insurgent group into a formidable force capable of sustaining prolonged military pressure. Despite facing numerous setbacks on the battlefield, the Houthis’ strengthened arsenal and tactical prowess has allowed them to withstand assaults that might have broken a less-equipped group.

Collectively, these regional dynamics have helped shape the war, with each actor pursuing its own agenda—and prolonging conflict and the suffering of the Yemeni people.

The Human Toll


Indeed, the conflict has triggered one of the most devastating humanitarian crises in recent history, with all parties responsible for the collapse of vital services and for widespread human rights abuses. The destruction of infrastructure has crippled access to essential resources, leaving millions without healthcare, clean water, or education. Blockades and supply disruptions have exacerbated food shortages, pushing large segments of the population into acute food insecurity. All warring parties’ recruitment of child soldiers and the enduring violence have inflicted deep psychological trauma, with lasting consequences for Yemeni society. International relief efforts face access restrictions, security risks, and chronic underfunding, significantly hampering the delivery of aid. Warring factions’ manipulation of humanitarian assistance has further undermined the humanitarian response leaving the most vulnerable populations without the support they urgently need.

Policy Recommendations


A path to peace requires more than just ceasefires—it calls for a strategy that addresses both the political and humanitarian dimensions of the crisis. The international community must come together with a unified purpose, pressing Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran to end their support for rival factions. If there is to be any hope of stability, these powers must be urged to step back from their narrow interests. To move forward, the international community must push for a cohesive strategy that refocuses efforts on stabilizing Yemen as a whole, not fragmenting it further.

But unity on the international front is not enough: the Yemeni factions themselves must come to the table. The Houthis, the PLC, the STC, and others need to engage in an inclusive dialogue, one that does not merely shuffle power among leaders but addresses core grievances driving the war. Only by fostering consensus can a viable roadmap for Yemen’s future emerge—one that reflects the aspirations of all its people, not just those in power.