Sunday, December 3, 2017

The Battle For Sana'a

For about 5 months now, I have been documenting on Twitter what I called a crisis & a growing division between Saleh and Houthis. Last night, indeed, the crisis hit its peak as each side's forces clashed & a sort of guerrilla war on Sana'a streets began.

This is absolutely a defining moment not only on the course of Yemen war but also in post-Yemen's 2011 uprising period. What happens next? is it the end of the war? absolutely not. Here I comment on BBC World News on that:

Speculations loom around and nothing seems clear. But what we do know for sure is that the coalition between the Houthis and Saleh starting in mid-2014 has come to an end. Now, we are witnessing the emergence of a Saudi-Saleh coalition against Houthis

One thing Saleh has mastered over his almost 4 decades in politics is Survival Politics. He's been always ready to shift alliances & turn tables against whoever as long as it served his interests. What's notable this time is that he's shifting his alliance towards the Saudis because of his concerns with the tragic humanitarian situation in the country.

In this interview yesterday (above); Saleh was clear in demanding the Saudis and Emaraties to alleviate the humanitarian plight (to open airports, to allow humanitarian aid to enter Yemen and to rescue Yemenis from suffering). Saleh has been expressing his concerns over the suffering and bloodshed in the country over the past few months, as I document in my Twitter thread. What changes now is that the Saudis & Emarties seem to be leaning towards Saleh over Houthis, and they are responding positively as shown in yesterday statement from the Saudi-led coalition.

The Saudis truly want an exit from Yemen war while not losing face. They are wasting billions of dollars in their arms deals to fight in an unwinnable war in Yemen. While Saudis' economy is crippling, they have begun looking for cheaper weapon markets; such as, in Greece

Saleh's will to negotiate allows Saudis to save face. But does that mean that Saleh is defeated? no. Saleh's political guarantee in sharing a place in the coming, in the making, Yemen's political roadmap, manifest itself in his nephew holding a vital military position

Right there, I think we are going to block zero. We are returning to post-Yemen's 2011 uprising's political reality. As if we never had a revolution. For Saleh and his circle are the problem of the beginning. All following events led us to this "lesser of two evils" situation; in which Yemenis are cornered to chose between "living in world's largest humanitarian crisis" or "Saleh" - "life under Houthis' rule" or "Saleh".

No matter what happens, for the battle for Sana'a will be bloody, I pray for protection and safety for my mother, cousins, family and friends in Sana'a living life under Houthis' barbaric bloodcraze and Saudi-led coalition's airstrikes.