
DAWN - "Keep Yemen weak," King Abdulaziz Al Saud, the founder of modern Saudi Arabia, is said to have told his sons on his deathbed. Whether those words were apocryphal or not, the sentiment behind them aligns with Saudi Arabia's long-standing geopolitical strategy toward its southern neighbor. Historically, Saudi policy has sought to maintain a balance of power in Yemen—strong enough to prevent total collapse and regional instability but weak enough to prevent it from becoming a powerful, independent state that could challenge Saudi influence. This approach was evident in past Saudi interventions in Yemen, such as its support in the 1960s for Yemeni royalists against republicans backed by Egypt under Gamal Abdel Nasser.
Yet, exactly 10 years ago, just after midnight on March 26, 2015, Saudi Arabia broke with its traditional approach to Yemen when it launched heavy airstrikes on the capital, Sanaa. The Saudi aim, leading a military coalition that included other Gulf states, was to drive Houthi rebels out of Sanaa after they had effectively ousted the Yemeni government of then-President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. The Saudi-led military intervention, including its aerial bombing campaign that alone killed some 24,000 Yemenis, was not "limited in nature," as the Saudis promised, nor did it "protect the people of Yemen."
Instead, Saudi Arabia's disastrous intervention further fragmented Yemen. Control of the country today is still split between the Houthis, who are much stronger than they were in 2015 and have become the dominant force across northern Yemen; the weak internationally recognized government, mostly confined to Aden; and the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) backed by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia's one-time partner in its military coalition against the Houthis.
Ten years after the airstrikes began, the Saudi-led war against the Houthis has left Yemen in ruins, with no clear winners, only devastation. Every faction involved, from the Houthis to the Saudi-led coalition and their local allies to the coalition's Western backers, has contributed to the suffering. When the Houthis seized Sana'a in 2014, they set the stage for a long, unresolved war that risked drawing in outside powers. In another era, perhaps Saudi Arabia would have been more cautious, but with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman assuming more power under his father, King Salman, the prince pushed for what was widely seen by observers as "his war"—what quickly became "Saudi Arabia's Vietnam."
Every side in Yemen's war has been credibly accused of committing grave human rights violations and war crimes, contributing to the country's descent into hell. The use of starvation as a weapon of war—by both the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition—further underlined the brutality of this conflict. Every horror of war you can name has been carried out in Yemen. The United Nations estimated in 2020 that nearly a quarter of a million people had died directly or indirectly from the conflict, though most believe the toll is much higher. The warring parties have all failed to uphold even the most basic principles of international humanitarian law.
The Saudi-led intervention in Yemen had one main objective: reversing the Houthi takeover of Sana'a. It unequivocally failed in that mission. Instead, Saudi military adventurism entrenched Yemeni divisions, exacerbated humanitarian suffering across the country and left Yemen broken as a state. The consequences of this failure extend beyond the battlefield, shaping Yemen's political future and regional dynamics in ways that will be difficult to reverse. Saudi Arabia's failure isn't just military or political; it's a failure of logic and reason.
In the early days of the war in 2015, Saudi diplomats claimed to U.S. officials that they could defeat the Houthis in six weeks—a prediction that not only foreshadowed military disaster but political miscalculation. Rather than strengthening the Yemeni government as their intervention claimed to, the UAE, Saudi Arabia's main coalition partner, undermined stated Saudi objectives by backing rival Yemeni militias like the STC, which wants to secede and reestablish an independent South Yemen. This lack of a unified strategy turned the anti-Houthi bloc into competing power centers, weakening the coalition and prolonging the war—turning Yemen into a battleground of fragmented allegiances and an increasingly fractious, multi-front, multi-sided war.
Saudi Arabia's efforts to unify the anti-Houthi camp—through the Riyadh Agreement in 2019 and the Presidential Leadership Council that the Saudis engineered in 2022—faltered due to these deep internal rivalries and conflicting agendas, particularly between Saudi-backed Yemeni factions and UAE-supported forces like the STC. Instead of forging a cohesive front, Saudi machinations deepened existing divisions, with internal clashes persisting within the Riyadh-based Presidential Leadership Council. Competing Saudi and Emirati interests and the absence of any centralized command turned the Presidential Leadership Council into another battleground for power struggles within the anti-Houthi bloc.
But most importantly, on the ground in Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition's military failure was rooted in both strategic miscalculations and structural weaknesses. The initial assumption that air power and military superiority could swiftly defeat the Houthis underestimated their resilience and ability to adapt through asymmetric warfare, including drone strikes and other guerrilla tactics developed through years of insurgency in Yemen's northern highlands. The Houthis exploited every Saudi misstep, expanding their reach in Yemen and then launching sustained attacks deep into Saudi territory.
The Saudi-led coalition's failure to achieve its objectives, despite substantial military expenditures, has exposed deep vulnerabilities in Saudi Arabia's military capabilities, draining resources and raising questions about the kingdom's long-term economic stability. The protracted war has left Saudi Arabia vulnerable, which explains why Riyadh abruptly shifted to diplomacy over the past two years, in what has amounted to a significant retreat. Yemen's fragmentation, in a state of de facto partition, has made any cohesive political resolution increasingly elusive, reinforcing Yemen's instability and underscoring the risks Saudi Arabia created through its military intervention.
Instead of trying to reshape Yemen's political landscape, the Saudis are now focused on smaller issues, like border security. From its 2023 agreement restoring diplomatic ties with Iran, brokered by China, to the surprising visit in April 2023 by the Saudi ambassador to Sanaa, where he met with Houthi leaders, Riyadh has moved into damage-control mode. Saudi officials have been forced to adjust their approach, from bellicose rhetoric about driving the Houthis out of power to more modest aims of containing threats to the kingdom. This about-face reflects a recognition that military intervention alone cannot resolve the stalemate in Yemen.
The Houthi strikes in the Red Sea, targeting international shipping, U.S. naval ships and Israeli targets, in declared solidarity with Gaza, highlight the missteps of the Saudi war, which ended up elevating the Houthis as a regional actor. Once only a tribal insurgency with aims on northern Yemen, the Houthis now have global clout. The fact that both the Biden administration and Trump administration have ordered U.S. airstrikes against them only plays into Houthi narratives that they are leading the armed resistance to both the U.S. and Israel. But the Houthis' survival still ultimately depends on negotiation, not endless war. Despite the failed Saudi intervention, the Houthis have not won the war in Yemen, even if they have emerged stronger.
For Yemenis, the past decade has been a cascade of wasted years, shattered hopes and unimaginable suffering. The youngest generation has known nothing but the horrors of this brutal conflict. In gatherings today, people recount everything they have had to endure. A mother points to her 9-year-old son: "I gave birth to my son in a hospital while coalition bombs fell on the funeral hall. Remember that day? That's when he was born." Another father calmly describes how he lost his teenage son to a bullet fired by a Houthi sniper in Taiz. Yemenis joke darkly that by the time there is any real redress for all the war's destruction, it won't be enough to just rebuild. They would need these lost 10 years given back to them—an impossible demand for an irreparable loss.
______________________________________________
This article was first written for and published on the DAWN website.