Nasrallah's death would subtly strain the relationship between Iran and the Houthis. The Houthis might interpret Iran's inability to protect Nasrallah as a signal that Tehran might not fully support them in critical moments either. This sentiment could be rooted already following the Israeli attack on the Houthi-controlled Hodeidah port in Yemen, in July. However, despite any private misgivings, the Houthis are unlikely to publicly sever ties or criticize Iran, recognizing the strategic importance of that alliance.
Now, the Houthis might reassess their strategies while maintaining ties with Iran. They could seek to broaden their international alliances, with Russia being a potential partner they've eyed for some time. Diversifying their support network would aim to bolster their military capabilities independently, potentially emboldening them to intensify military campaigns.
Nasrallah's absence could create a power vacuum within Iran's network of regional allies. The Houthis might step into a more prominent role as Iran's primary proxy, expanding their influence in regional affairs as Hezbollah navigates its leadership transition.
An empowered Houthi movement would heighten concerns for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who already perceive them as a growing threat. In response, these Gulf states might deepen their involvement in Yemen to counterbalance the Houthis' strengthened position. This escalation would likely complicate ongoing peace efforts, as the Houthis might be preoccupied with expanding their regional influence and less willing to compromise in negotiations.
The focus on regional ambitions could exacerbate instability within Yemen. This internal distraction might create openings for extremist groups like al-Qaeda to regroup and expand their activities, taking advantage of the shifting attention of major powers. Such developments pose additional risks to both regional and international security.
Amid these tensions, an unlikely but noteworthy scenario is that Israel could consider extending its military actions to Yemen, targeting the Houthi leadership, including Abdelmalik al-Houthi. Such a move would aim to continue weakening Iran's influence in the region by disrupting one of its key allied groups. This would represent a significant escalation in the region. The humanitarian consequences in Yemen, already facing a severe crisis, would be profound.
