Climate Change: A New Battlefield in Yemen’s Ongoing Conflict

Arab Center Washington DC - Like the rest of the world, Yemen is facing the profound effects of climate change on sectors from agriculture and health to the broader economy and natural resources. Yemen is also experiencing recurring challenges from extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, rising temperatures, and droughts, that cause the atmosphere to retain more moisture and intensify the effect of rain and flooding. Since April of this year, devastating floods in the war-torn country have claimed dozens of lives and displaced thousands of families. The flooding also has destroyed vital infrastructure, swept away homes, shifted landmines planted by combatants on the battlefield, and caused a full-scale humanitarian emergency.

After a decade of war and instability, Yemen stands at a critical crossroads where climate change and armed conflict converge. The country’s environment, already fragile due to decades of mismanagement, faces additional pressure from climate change. This situation creates a feedback loop in which environmental challenges worsen conflict and war further erodes Yemen’s ability to respond and adapt to climate change.

The overlapping crises make peacebuilding more difficult and increase social grievances. Without integrated strategies that combine climate adaptation with peacebuilding, Yemen risks becoming a persistent source of instability and displacement. Addressing these interconnected crises is essential for breaking the cycle of climate-conflict interplay and securing a more stable future for the Yemeni people.

Historical Environmental Context

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) reported in 2023 that temperatures across Yemen have been rising for at least six decades and are expected to continue warming through 2050. The report also noted that rainfall variability is increasing, with a modest decline in spring rains, which is affecting crop yields and altering the seasons in ways that disrupt traditional farming practices.

Yemen is ranked as the seventh most water-scarce nation globally, a situation that affects all agricultural production and livelihood. In this arid landscape, groundwater—a vital resource—drops by 2 to 6 meters annually in critical basins, a silent yet relentless depletion. The struggle is not limited to the highlands. Along the coasts, the encroaching saltwater intrudes into freshwater sources, turning once-fresh wells brackish and unfit for use. In parallel, Yemen’s soil speaks of its own battles. The fertile lands that once flourished with crops are now marred by erosion, leading to deforestation and desertification. Extreme weather events—whether fierce storms or prolonged droughts—have hastened the erosion process, stripping the soil of its ability to sustain crops. Adding to the environmental toll, Yemen’s forests are disappearing at an alarming rate. With over 5 million trees cut down since 2018, the ongoing conflict has led to massive tree felling for firewood amid fuel shortages.

Climate Change as a Conflict Multiplier

The harsh reality of climate change is more than just an environmental challenge—it is a formidable force that deepens Yemen’s conflicts. For decades, water scarcity has sparked tribal conflicts that historically have started because of limited precious resources. Violence tied to land and water disputes has led to thousands of deaths annually, a reminder of the human cost of resource scarcity. Climate change has raised the stakes even higher.

Recent years have seen a series of devastating climate disasters that have intensified Yemen’s challenges, painting a vivid picture of the destructive power of climate change and its far-reaching effects. Cyclone Chapala in 2015 marked the beginning of this intensified turmoil. As it roared across the Arabian Sea, the cyclone unleashed an unprecedented torrent of rain—610 millimeters in just 48 hours. The storm’s fury was most acutely felt on Yemen’s Socotra Island and in the mainland governorates of Shabwah and Hadramawt. The deluge turned the once dry and arid landscapes into a sea of destruction. The storm swept away homes, obliterated critical infrastructure, and washed away essential resources. For some 1.1 million people, the cyclone was not just a natural disaster but a profound disruption of their lives, compounding the suffering of those already displaced by conflict.

Then came Cyclone Mekunu in 2018 which, while primarily affecting Oman, cast a long shadow over Yemen. The storm’s heavy rains breached Socotra’s natural coastal defenses, flooding the island and forcing more than 500 families from their homes. The cyclone’s impact on Yemen exposed the fragile state of the country’s infrastructure and worsened the dire humanitarian situation. The floods did more than just displace families—they worsened resource scarcity.

The saga of destruction continued with Cyclone Tej in 2023, which brought severe repercussions to Socotra and Hadramawt and al-Mahra governorates. The cyclone’s impact was devastating, affecting more than 10,000 households. The heavy rains and flooding caused widespread damage to homes, infrastructure, and vital livelihoods. Agriculture and fisheries, crucial to the economy, were severely disrupted, further straining fragile resources and amplifying the challenges faced by the local population. As communities navigate this harsh reality, the weight of each disaster and environmental challenge deepens the crisis, pushing Yemen’s resilience to its limits.

Socio-Economic Impacts

The dual crises of climate change and conflict are tearing up the nation’s socio-economic fabric and threatening countless lives. The country’s water scarcity paints a particularly stark picture of this unfolding disaster. As Yemen braces for its per capita water availability to plummet by 2030 to a mere 55 cubic meters—barely 10 percent of the international benchmark of 500 cubic meters for severe water scarcity—the implications are dire. This profound shortage jeopardizes agricultural productivity, a critical lifeline for many Yemenis, and pushes rural populations into increasingly crowded urban centers, widening the abyss of economic disparity.

Yemen’s beekeeping sector—a tradition that stretches back to the 10th century BC—stands as a poignant symbol of the devastating impacts of climate change. Once celebrated for its high-quality honey, the industry now grapples with shifting weather patterns. Holm Akhdar for Environmental Studies highlights the gravity of the situation, noting that “beekeepers in Yemen are facing severe challenges due to climate change. Fluctuating weather is damaging beehives and reducing honey yields. The honey industry’s annual value, approximately $500 million, is projected to drop by 30 percent, threatening both the economic stability of beekeepers and the food security of many Yemeni families.”

The war also has increased reliance on unsustainable water extraction and emergency supplies, while pollution from oil exploration (in such places as Hadramawt) and inefficient waste management undermines public health and disrupts ecological balance. Adding to the turmoil, extreme weather events continue to wreak havoc on infrastructure and agricultural lands. These unpredictable disasters exacerbate food insecurity and economic instability.

Policy and Legal Framework

The country’s climate policy challenges unfold against a backdrop of political instability and governance fragmented between Houthi-controlled Sanaa and Yemeni government-controlled Aden. There is a glaring absence of a dedicated national institution to manage climate strategies and finances. This void is highlighted by the lack of a National Climate Fund, which stifles the coordination of climate actions and limits access to crucial international climate finance. Yemen’s Environment Protection Authority (EPA), tasked with overseeing climate change initiatives, is severely weakened by the country’s political turmoil, chronic underfunding, and other resource constraints. The nation’s fragmented governance structures exacerbate the problem. The division between National Water Resources Authority in Sanaa and the Ministry of Water and the Environment in Aden, for example, have rendered Yemen’s climate response disjointed, inefficient, and ineffective.

Policymakers in Yemen face a significant gap in climate finance readiness, which stymies the development of comprehensive, low-emission, and climate-resilient strategies. Yemen’s failure to ratify the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement highlights the extent of the problem. Political instability and fragmented governance have prevented Yemen from fully committing to international climate agreements, isolating the country from global initiatives that could help it in funding climate action.

Recommendations for Policy Action

The path to overcoming the dual crises of climate change and conflict demands a focused and integrated approach. This should begin with much-needed institutional reforms to create a framework that seamlessly weaves climate adaptation into broader peacebuilding and development strategies. The essence of this approach lies in aligning environmental governance with conflict resolution efforts, ensuring that climate resilience becomes an integral part of the peace process. Such synergy is not just about fostering sustainable development— it is about stabilizing the nation by addressing the environmental factors that fuel conflict.

The need to strengthen institutional capacity is also urgent. Yemen’s EPA requires a steady stream of funding and capacity-building support. This will enable Yemen to enhance early warning systems, improve disaster response mechanisms, and tackle environmental issues head-on, even amidst ongoing conflict.

Community-based adaptation is another crucial element of the strategy. Investing in local resilience-building projects such as sustainable agriculture, efficient water management, and renewable energy can significantly mitigate the impact of climate change. These investments are essential for creating long-term resilience against extreme weather events and resource scarcities exacerbated by conflict. Additionally, improving data collection and research on climate impact will provide a clearer picture of how climate change affects various sectors and regions within Yemen. This knowledge is vital for crafting effective adaptation strategies.

But internal efforts are not enough: international collaboration must play a pivotal role. Yemen’s priority should be ratifying the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, an international treaty that offers access to vital global support and resources for climate adaptation and mitigation. Joining this global accord would not only demonstrate Yemen’s commitment to addressing climate change but would also strengthen its position in international negotiations and aid efforts. Yemen must take critical steps to become eligible for the Green Climate Fund (GCF). Securing GCF funding is contingent upon Yemen meeting specific criteria, including demonstrating a robust national climate strategy and institutional capacity. Only by fulfilling these requirements can Yemen access international climate finance and undertake the recommendations needed for substantial progress.

Thus, Yemen’s path forward hinges on resolving its conflicts, stabilizing the country, overcoming governance challenges, and aligning with international climate standards to unlock the resources essential for its climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. As the country grapples with the weight of its dual crises, every choice, every strategy, and every decision in this critical period will define whether Yemen can find a path to stability and hope—or descend deeper into despair.